#06 Antifragility

In our world, both in our daily lives and on a global scale, we often find ourselves avoiding to taking risks. We love control and predictability while despising unpredictability. But what if I told you that there's a different perspective to consider?

Unpredictability, as it turns out, might not always be the enemy. Renowned author Nassim Nicholas Taleb introduces us to the concept of anti-fragility, where certain systems not only survive in disorder and unpredictability b ut actually thrive because of them. This intriguing idea challenges our conventional thoughts of harm, unpredictability, fragility and robustness.

In this epiode on anti-fragility, we'll delve into the core principles of this concept and explore its implications, from personal decision-making to broader areas like economics and health. We'll examine fragility, robustness, and systems that can gain strength from volatility and stress.

By the end of this episode, you'll likely find yourself looking at uncertainty not just as a challenge to survive, but as an opportunity to thrive. So, without further ado, let's begin our exploration.

Anti-fragility can be exemplified with a simple scenario. Imagine you're sending a fragile gift to a friend. You'd meticulously pack it, labeling it as fragile, hoping it reaches safely. Now, consider the opposite approach. What if you labeled it as solid or resilient? Surprisingly, the opposite of fragile isn't what you'd expect. It's actually something that gains from disorder - something anti-fragile.

To better understand this concept, let's turn to Greek mythology. Enter Hydra, the multi-headed serpent-like monster. Interestingly, every time you cut off one head, two grow in its place. This curious resilience mirrors anti-fragility, where harm actually fuels growth.

Think about the legendary Phoenix, the bird that rises from its own ashes. This ancient symbol embodies the idea of anti-fragility. When faced with challenges or harm, some entities not only bounce back but become stronger.

Proto Fragility

But don't let this idea fool you. Not everything that appears resilient is anti-fragile. Taleb introduces us to the term "proto-fragility." Some systems might not immediately show vulnerability, but they can be triggered by specific situations. Identifying these proto-fragile points is crucial in making informed decisions and creating systems that thrive in adversity.

Consider a toxic substance. it might be harmful, but in even smaller amounts, it could trigger beneficial reactions - a phenomenon known as hormesis. This concept is crucial in grasping the essence of anti-fragility. So in this case harm is dose dependent.

Example of Thought controlling.

In 1888 It was for the first time scientifally described by Hugo Shulz: small doses of poision stimulate growth of yeast while larger doses cause harm. It is also the case for vegetale actually. Researches says what we call “viamins” can actually be a surviving method of plants.

Recognizing Anti-fragile systems

Yet, recognizing anti-fragile systems can be challenging due to our conventional notions of success, economy, and innovation. We often overlook, underappreciate the growth that arises from difficulty, as we're wired to focus on continuous growth, economic stability, and innovation without acknowledging the necessary role of harm.

I’m going to introduce here the term “domain independence”. We recognize anti-fragile systems mostly if it in our domain. Let me give you an example: a skilled basketball player can make fast and to the point decisions is a good teamplayer and takes risks. If consider another environment like company environment, these skills are necessary too. If we transfer this basketball player to this company their expertise does not necessarily transfer seamlessly to another domain.

This is how we perceive risk and uncertainity. For instance, someone who's comfortable taking risks in their personal life might be risk-averse when it comes to financial investments.

Let me ask you a question. Which term are coming across more often? Post Traumatic stress. Or. Post Traumatic growth? You like me, you will Probably say post traumatic stress. There is even a psychological disorder with this linked. PTSD, Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.

Also in intellectual conversations tend to focus on negative outcomes. Rather than Outcomes that are positive, like personal growth, Building character. But does stress always have a negative outcome? No.

Again. We under appreciate the idea of positive outcomes. And getting blind to anti-fragility. Stuck to think about negative or harmful consequences.

Let me ask you a question. Which term are coming across more often? Post Traumatic stress. Or. Post Traumatic growth? You like me, you will Probably say post traumatic stress. There is even a psychological disorder with this. Linked. PTSD, Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. popular culture. But also in intellectual conversations tend to focus on negative outcomes. Rather than Outcomes that are positive, like personal growth, Building character. But does stress always have a negative outcome? No.

Again. We under appreciate the idea of positive outcomes. And getting blind to anti-fragility. Stuck to think about negative or harmful consequences.

Another Perspective on Anti-Fragility: Stress

The frequency of stressors is essential in determining whether stress is anti-fragile. Stress itself is not necessarily bad; it's the frequency and context that matter. Acute stress can be more beneficial than chronic stress. After experiencing acute stress, having time to recover allows you to respond effectively to stressors.

For example, imagine walking in a situation where you face multiple stress factors. If a bear is running towards you while you notice a snake and fire nearby, it's a continuous stress situation. In contrast, if a bear suddenly approaches, you can have a moment of acute stress and then decide to fight or flee. Recovery from stress is vital in determining whether you are fragile or anti-fragile.

Neurobiologists also support the importance of acute stress. It's necessary for growth and adaptation. On the other hand, continuous stress can be harmful to one's health. Consider the Chinese torture method where a continuous drop hits the same spot repeatedly, leading to mental distress. It's evident that the frequency and context of stress are crucial in determining its effects on individuals' well-being.

Form of Harm

This holds true in information warfare too. Information can be anti-fragile. Controversial content, despite criticism, often gains attention and engagement. Similarly, overcompensation and overreaction show us that sometimes, harm can be beneficial. Stress, if well-timed and not chronic, can lead to growth. Recovery from stress is the key determinant of whether an experience is anti-fragile.

Consider the example of critics to a book. It is truthful, unfaith badge of attention. And signaling actually that it is not boring. Because if it was boring. Then. The person would not even attempt to criticize it.

It's the same for reputation. Some professions are fragile to reputational harm. These jobs are not actually really worth having. You shouldn't control your reputation. You weren't able to do it by controlling information flow. You cannot control. What people will say Talk behind you. So what should you do then? The author of the book Antifragile. Says this focus on altering your exposure. Put yourself in a position. Impervious to Reputational damage. Or even put yourself in a situation to benefit from the antifragility of information. Be like a rider. Or a podcaster maybe. It is only when you don't care about your reputation that you tend to have a good one.

Under/over compensation (excessive reaction)

It is said that horses lose the game when they compete with slower ones, but they win against their better rivals. So, if you undercompensate because there is no stressor or any challenge, you'll actually degrade, .

Nicolas also gives us another example: after a long flight, you might get really tired, but you need your energy for other tasks. Instead of resting, he suggests going to the gym for some exertion. You'll immediately have more energy than after the flight.

He also says that if you need to get something done, you can give the task to the busiest person. This is because busy people are often more productive than those with empty schedules. Free time can make people dysfunctional, lazy, and unmotivated. The busier they get, the more active they become at other tasks, so overcompensation can occur.

Another Perspective on Anti-Fragility: Frequency

Loving errors

Consider a fragile person. This person depends on things following the exact planned course. With as little deviation as possible. Because. This person thinks deviations are more harmful than helpful. So fragile persons needs to be very predictive in their approach. But if you are anti fragile You want deviations. And you don't care about the possible dispersion of outcomes that the future can bring. Since most will be helpful. An anti fragile person Uses errors as source of information. Every trial provides A some form of information. Information About what does not work for you. So every attempt. Becomes more valuable. Because you start zooming in in a solution. And along the way, of course you'd make Discoveries.

An antifragility embraces errors.

But here's the things. the author Nasim says. Every plane crash brings us closer to a more safe. And improved system. The thing Some crashes Are beneficial for some,

So while a plane crash. Makes the next one less likely. That's not the case for a bank crash. A plane crash does not affect other planes, but a bank crash. Effects other banks. The way that our economy is built. Is not anti fragile. So what we can conclude is. Anti fragile systems Have Independent errors. Whereas fragile systems have Errors that spread.

So how can we practice? Antifragility and embrace errors. Well, the author Is really clear about this. Don't victimize yourself.. someone who, after making a mistake, doesn't introspect, doesn't exploit it feel.s Embarrassed and defensive rather than enriched. With a new piece of information and tries to explain why he made the mistakes rather than moving on.

Entrepreneurship

Who do we call a hero? Someone. That takes risks. For others. Entrepreneurship. Is also a risky and a heroic activity. It is necessary for growth. And the survival of the economy. Entrepreneurs Find market openings And. Is creating an expertise on that field and is providing knowledge the best knowledge? For the others. But most of the time, unfortunately, He doesn't get enough credit For it. A

nd sometimes no respect even. Nasim things we should be grateful. And celebrates entrepreneurs And we should treat. Ruined (morally. Broken and socially stigmatized.) entrepreneurs in the same way we honor dead soldiers. There is nothing as a failed soldier So there also shouldn't be. A field entrepreneur Or a failed Scientific researcher.

Most of you will fail. Disrespected, impoverished, But we are grateful for the Risks you are taking and the sacrifices you are making for the sake of the economic growth Of the planets and pulling others out of poverty. You are the source of our anti fragility. Our nation thanks you. For your information, Global Entrepreneur Day is on August 21. So if you know any entrepreneurs in your environment, your network, congratulate them. Please.

Randomness and Stability

Consider a region near a tectonic plate boundary that has experienced relatively low seismic activity for decades. The local population and infrastructure have grown accustomed to this stability. Buildings are constructed using standard materials and techniques that are appropriate for the expected low-level seismicity.

However, the movement of tectonic plates and the occurrence of earthquakes are inherently random and unpredictable. Even in regions with a history of low seismic activity, there is always a chance of a major earthquake occurring unexpectedly. This randomness is what Taleb emphasizes in his discussions on uncertainty.

In Earth tectonics, periods of low seismic activity can lead to the accumulation of energy along tectonic plate boundaries. "elastic strain accumulation."

When tectonic plates are locked together due to friction along a fault line, stress accumulates as the plates continue to push against each other. As time passes without a release of this accumulated stress through seismic activity (earthquakes), the strain continues to build up.

Eventually, the stress reaches a threshold where the friction holding the plates together is overcome, and a sudden release of energy occurs. This release of energy is what we experience as an earthquake.

So, in a sense, periods of low seismic activity can indeed lead to the accumulation of energy in Earth's crust. This stored energy is eventually released during earthquakes, which is why areas that have experienced relatively quiet seismic periods are still at risk of experiencing significant earthquakes when the accumulated stress is finally released.

Nassim Taleb's viewpoint becomes relevant when an unexpectedly powerful earthquake strikes the supposedly stable region. The structures that were designed to withstand minor tremors might not be capable of withstanding the intense shaking of a significant quake. The focus on stability alone might lead to vulnerabilities in the face of unpredictable events.

Solution: Instead of relying solely on stability, the region's infrastructure takes into account the potential for unexpected seismic events. Buildings are constructed with more flexible materials and innovative designs that can absorb and dissipate energy during an earthquake. Additionally, emergency response plans are well-prepared, and the population is educated about earthquake safety.

While stability might provide a false sense of security, embracing randomness and adopting antifragile strategies can lead to more effective responses and recovery when unexpected earthquakes occur. And can even make you trive when harm is caused.

Summary